When Circumstances Are Stronger Than Habits: How Financial Stress Affects Smoking Cessation
HSE researchers have found that the likelihood of quitting smoking rises with increasing financial struggles. While low levels of financial difficulties do not affect smoking behaviour, moderate financial stress can increase the probability of quitting by 13% to 21%. Responses to high financial stress differ by gender: men are almost 1.5 times more likely to give up cigarettes than under normal conditions, whereas no significant effect is observed on women’s decisions to quit smoking. These conclusions are based on data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) for 2000–2023 and have been published in Monitoring of Public Opinion: Economic and Social Changes.
According to the Russian Ministry of Health, since the mid-1990s the proportion of smokers in Russia has almost halved, falling from 31% to 18.5%. Nevertheless, quitting smoking remains a challenge for many. According to the World Health Organization, hundreds of millions of smokers worldwide want to quit tobacco but struggle to do so. One factor that can both facilitate and hinder smoking cessation is financial stress.
Alina Biryukova, a doctoral student at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences, analysed data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) covering the period from 2000 to 2023. Her study included more than 4,200 employed respondents. To measure financial stress, the author constructed an index based on four indicators: reductions in wages or working hours, forced unpaid leave, wage arrears, and unpaid housing and utility bills.
Depending on the combination of these factors, financial stress was classified as absent, low, moderate, or high. The model also accounted for respondents’ age, marital status, parental status, education level, and self-assessed health and income.
The results show that the effect of financial difficulties on smoking cessation is complex and differs between men and women. Low levels of financial stress do not affect the likelihood of quitting smoking. By contrast, moderate financial stress increases the probability of quitting—by 13.1% for men and 21.1% for women. Under high financial stress, men are much more likely to quit smoking, with the probability rising by 56.6%. For women, this effect is not statistically significant, indicating gender differences in responses to severe financial stress.
According to the author, the observed differences in how men and women respond to financial stress can be explained by several factors. One is the influence of gender stereotypes: men are often expected not to express their emotions and may acknowledge stress only when it becomes severe. Previous studies have also identified barriers more typical for women, including greater vulnerability to nicotine dependence linked to hormonal changes, depression, and anxiety, which more often trigger relapses. In addition, social factors—such as fear of weight gain—may further hinder smoking cessation among women.
The researcher also examined the impact of four economic crises in Russia—2008–2009, 2014–2015, 2020–2021, and 2022–2023. The findings show that economic crises alone do not necessarily lead to smoking cessation. For example, during the 2008–2009 crisis, men were more likely to quit smoking, while no noticeable effect was observed among women. The pandemic-related crisis of 2020–2021 did not affect the likelihood of quitting smoking for either men or women. In contrast, the 2014–2015 crisis, which coincided with the tightening of anti-tobacco policies, was associated with noticeable changes in smokers’ behaviour, with many people giving up cigarettes during this period. This underscores the importance of the institutional context and of choosing the right moment to implement public policy measures. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that economic instability can influence the effectiveness of regulatory restrictions.
Alina Biryukova
'Legislation plays a key role only when combined with an economic crisis, as economic decline alone often reduces motivation to quit smoking. Policy measures amplify this effect, making smoking cessation a more rational choice under conditions of instability,' comments Biryukova.
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