Search Query: How to Study Migration with Google Trends
Experts have calculated that the number of international students in Russia has grown six times over the last decade, and researchers say that many of those who are studying today would like to stay in the country. This, alongside issues such as why Google Trends are worth looking into, were covered at the HSE XXIV Yasin International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development section on demography and labour markets.
The section included the sessions ‘Demographic Development of Russian Regions in Conditions of Turbulence’, ‘Problems of Internal Migration in Russia’, ‘Trends of International Migration in Russia’, ‘Questions of the Study of Fertility’ and ‘The Factor of Seasonality in Demographic Processes’.
At the session on international migration in Russia, Elena Vakulenko, Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences (FES), and FES postgraduate student Georgy Bronitsky presented the paper ‘Predicting International Migration Using Google Trends’.
Georgy Bronitsky explained that international migration researchers often face delays in data acquisition, and the methods of calculation change from time to time, which makes year-to-year comparisons harder. It is also difficult to analyse statistics from different countries and international organisations, while the study of queries in search engines makes it possible to obtain more precise data faster.
For example, the study of queries on emigration to Germany helped the scholars advance their research. They used linguistic methods of machine learning to evaluate arrays of search queries describing intentions to migrate. In particular, they determined search terms such as ‘embassy of Germany’, ‘German visa’, and ‘jobs in Germany’. Then, the authors standardised the data from Google Trends, Yandex Wordstat, and OECD for further comparison, taking into account the lag time of a month to a year between the queries and the departure.
Julia Florinskaya, Leading Research Fellow at RANEPA, presented her paper ‘Student Migration to and from Russia: Should We Expect Changes After 2022?’ The paper was based on public statistics data and supplemented with interviews with Russians students studying abroad and international students at Russian universities.
Julia Florinskaya
Julia Florinskaya said that from 1995–2021, the number of international students in Russia grew six times and reached 364,000 people. The plan is to increase this number to 700,000. Over 50% of foreign students in Russia come from CIS countries. Citizens of China, India, and countries in the Middle East and Africa also comprise a considerable share. She said that since 2007, student migration in Russia has followed the model of developed countries. The number of international students in Russia was much higher than the number of Russian students abroad; the latter was also growing, but the share of Russians among international students did not exceed 1% and was less than, for example, the share of students from Kazakhstan.
According to Julia Florinskaya, the main reason for foreign graduates of Russian universities to go back home were difficulties related to getting a residence permit after graduation. Some of them also mentioned negative attitudes from police and xenophobia in their everyday communications. At the same time, many students from CIS countries are trying to stay in Russia and get a job that is relevant to their degree.
The situation with Russian students abroad in 2022 was not critical, explained Julia Florinskaya. There were no massive dropouts from European and American universities, the difficulties with tuition payments were resolved in April, and the media made individual situations look like a systemic crisis.
The international migration session also featured a paper by Valery Yumaguzin, Senior Lecturer at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography on ‘Russian Emigration in 2022 According to Mobile Operators’. Boburmirzo Ibrokhimov and Rashid Javed from Westminster International University in Tashkent together with Mazhar Mughal from Pau Business School, France, talked on ‘Migrants Remittances and Fertility in the Post-Soviet States’. The session was chaired by Olga Chudinovskikh, Head of the MSU Laboratory of Population Economics and Demography.
Sergey Zakharov, Chief Research Fellow at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, Elena Churilova, Research Fellow at the HSE International Laboratory for Population and Health, and Olga Rodina, master’s student at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, presented their paper ‘Get Married and Have a Child: A Variety of Ways to Realize Births’ at the session ‘Questions of the Study of Fertility’. According to the paper authors, a considerable share of children were born as a result of extramarital conceptions during the last decades of the Soviet Union and the first post-Soviet years; by the early 2000s, this share exceeded 50%, and by 2012, it decreased to 44%.
In the late Soviet Union, birth out of wedlock was an indicator of disadvantaged demographics. In the 2010s, due to changing matrimonial and reproductive behaviour (increasing age of marriage and first childbirth, decreasing number of unplanned pregnancies and abortions), the situation changed: more children have been born to parents who are partners but are not married officially.
According to Elena Churilova, the source of data for the study was an anonymised database of births in 2012–2021. The authors calculated the time from marriage to childbirth and determined whether the conception was marital or extramarital.
Elena Churilova
The share of children who were born out of wedlock or after a premarital conception decreased to 37.6% in 2020 and grew by 1% in 2021, which the researchers believe is a result of complicated marriage registration procedures due to the pandemic. The share of extramarital conceptions decreased particularly considerably among women aged 19–34. At the same time, the authors registered a growing trend for premarital conceptions and births out of wedlock among teens under 18, which is an indicator of expanding casual sexual relations and a low level of awareness about contraception methods.
The session also included the following papers: ‘Financial Well-being and Reproductive Intentions in a Situation of Increasing Uncertainty in 2020’ by Ekaterina Mitrofanova, Senior Lecturer at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography together with Veronika Kraynova and Olga Rodina, master’s students of Demography at HSE University; ‘Regional Maternity Capital Programmes: Impact on Fertility in Russia’ by Elena Vakulenko, Natalia Ivashina, Associate Professor at FEFU, and Yana Svistyilnik, bachelor’s students of Economics at FEFU (a double-degree programme with HSE); as well as ‘Experience in Implementing Regional Monitoring of Demographic Development’ by Alexandra Shabunova, Director of VolRS RAS, and Olga Kalachikova, Deputy Director of VolRS RAS.
The session was chaired by Ekaterina Mitrofanova, Senior Lecturer at the HSE Vishnevsky Institute of Demography.
See also:
HSE University Announces Call for Proposals to Attend Anniversary Yasin Conference
HSE University invites submissions of proposals with academic reports for participation in the 25th Yasin (April) International Academic Conference (YIAC). The conference programme, centred on five research themes addressing issues of economic and social development, will retain its interdisciplinary focus and welcome participation from leading scientists in Russia and around the globe. The key events of the 25th Yasin Conference will be taking place in Moscow from April 15 to 18, 2025.
'Motivation for Pursuing Big Goals in Life': What is Taught in 'Population and Development' Master's Programme
In 2023, the Master's Programme 'Population and Development' was ranked among the top educational programmes at HSE University. The HSE News Service explains what makes this programme special, and why specialists in population issues should study Python, housing policy, and public administration.
Elderly People, Crisis, and Robots
Across the globe, countries are witnessing dramatic shifts in the relative proportions of younger and older generations in their demographic makeup. Even in African states, signs of an emerging demographic decline are becoming evident. By 2050, two thirds of people aged 65 and over will be living in low- and middle-income countries. While an ageing population poses a significant challenge to national economies, it can also serve as an impetus for development, especially in the realm of technology. What is the extent of global population ageing, what challenges arise in this context, and whether humanity is capable of addressing them are some of the key questions, explored by IQ.HSE, based on a paper published in Sociological Journal by Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, and Andrey Korotayev at the HSE Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis.
25th Yasin (April) International Academic Conference Now Accepting Proposals
Reports on new research results will be presented and discussed as part of the conference’s sections. These reports will be selected based on reviews of proposals. As always, the conference programme features expert discussions of the most pressing economic, social, internal and external issues in the format of roundtables and associated events.
Academic Council: HSE University’s Contribution to Achieving National Goals and Development Priorities to Increase
HSE University’s Development Programme until 2030 will be improved in order to increase the university’s contribution to achieving national goals and implementing the priorities of the country’s scientific and technological development. This decision was made by the university’s Academic Council on April 26. The meeting also addressed the principles for the development of HSE University’s external communications, one of which is the creation of a high-quality information field around the university.
Keeping Up with the Neighbours: Envy as a Driver of Economic Growth
Classical economic theory assumes that economic agents are entirely self-interested and rational in their pursuit of material well-being, and that they are not affected by external factors. As a result, externalities are not considered in any way when constructing economic models. Nevertheless, some sociologists argue for a revision of modern economic theory to incorporate the ethical dimensions of economic agents' behaviour. Kirill Borissov, Professor of the Faculty of Economics at the European University in St Petersburg, spoke at the XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference and shared his observations from creating his own economic model incorporating the factor of envy.
Structural Transformation and Drivers of Sustainable Growth in Russian Economy Discussed at HSE University
The Russian economy has demonstrated high resilience to unprecedented external pressure and has managed to largely adapt to new conditions. As early as this year, it can go from recession to growth. The issue of where to find drivers and resources for this was discussed at a plenary session titled ‘Russian Economy under Sanctions: From Adaptation to Sustainable Growth’ at the XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference held at HSE University as part of the Decade of Science and Technology. Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation Maksim Reshetnikov took part in the discussion.
‘People Want to Receive Only Useful Content’
Experts say that interest in news has sharply increased among the Russian audience. At the same time, part of the audience deliberately avoids it. What kind of content is in demand and will people continue to watch TV? These and other issues were discussed at the plenary session ‘ Info-hygiene and Information Elitism: How to Consume Media Properly’ at the XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference.
'The Emerging Trends in Africa Will Shape the World Order, and We Need to Be Prepared for That'
Africa has the potential to become a new economic giant. Today, African countries are interested in comprehensive cooperation and strengthening their positions in the global arena, and they look forward to receiving assistance from Russia and China in developing their technology, economy, and social sphere. Effective engagement with Africa requires training a greater number of professional African studies specialists. The XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference at HSE University featured a plenary session on 'Africa in a Changing World'.
Learning a Foreign Language Can Delay the Onset of Dementia
Dementia, a debilitating form of cognitive impairment, can be preventable. According to Professor Jubin Abutalebi of the University Vita Salute San Raffaele, Italy, and the Arctic University of Tromsoe, Norway, the easiest way to prevent cognitive decline after the age of 60 is to learn and practice foreign languages – the more languages, the better, suggests Professor Abutalebi in his presentation 'Preventing dementia through bilingualism' at the XXIV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference.